Mitt Romney will choose Marco Rubio (R-FL) to be his running mate. The media will hail it as a bold choice. In fact, it will be a cynical choice that reflects a complete lack of ideas and imagination. It will reflect the hollow shell of a formerly Grand Old Party. And it will not result in a Romney Presidency.

Let me explain.

When Barack Obama ran for the Senate in 2004 his opponent was Republican nominee Jack Ryan. In June 2004 Ryan dropped out as a result of a sex scandal involving his ex-wife, actress Jeri Ryan. Left with no candidate to run against Obama, the Illinois Republican Party nominated Maryland Resident Alan Keyes, a prominent African American Republican and former presidential candidate, to stand for election.

Devoid of ideas the Illinois Republican Party seemed to think that African American voters would be flummoxed by a choice between two African American candidates. Perhaps the confusion would lead Keyes to victory. There was no confusion. Obama won the race with more than 70% of the vote, and was victorious in virtually every county in Illinois.

The choice of Keyes was, in my view, one of the most cynical in the history of American politics up to that point. But it marks the beginning of a pattern of cynicism about group identities within the Republican Party. The GOP views group-identity differences as epiphenomenal; they don’t see race or gender, each of us is simply a sack of economic interests.

When in doubt focus on the demographic that is most troubling.

In the 2008 election–as in the current cycle–the Republican nominee John McCain faced a considerable gender gap.  Solution: Put a woman on the ticket; that will even out the gender gap. Women will vote for a woman. Sarah Palin. Apparently women are just as smart as Illinois’ African American voters. It did not work.

Now Mitt Romney faces his critical choice. Which demographics are most difficult for the Romney campaign? African Americans as always will be voting heavily Democratic; but the Republicans do not have a single prominent African American in their stable.  I suppose there is Alan West, but even most Republicans think he is bat-shit crazy.

Women. A problem again for the Republicans. Their relentless attacks on family planning have made women quite cross this year. They could put a woman on the ticket. Ooops, learned that lesson last time.

Where else are there problems? Latinos. The gap in Latino support between Obama and Romney is even more pronounced than the gender gap. Sixty-percent or more of Hispanics report that they will vote for Obama over Romney.

Eureka! Marco Rubio! He is Hispanic. Surely Hispanic voters will find it difficult to vote against a ticket that has the first major party Latino candidate.

And so, Marco Rubio will be the winner in the Veep-stakes. He has two added advantages, of course: He represents a critical swing state in the Senate, and social conservatives love him (and distrust Romney).

But wait. You are a careful student of politics–like a friend of mine–who objected to my logic. “Romney’s problem” he said ” is with Mexican-American voters. Rubio is Cuban”

Oh, but you have not been paying attention to Republican logic over the last decade, now have you? Rubio is a brown person. Brown people do not understand these such subtle distinctions. They will see a brown person on the ticket and vote for Romney-Rubio. That is what passes for innovative thinking in the Republican Party at this juncture.

And, as if I actually needed support for my conjectures, a recent polls suggests that a plurality of Republicans favor putting Rubio on the ticket.